Orbit Group - social housing stock modelling

Having set a strategic target for all its 30,000 properties to be rated EPC band C or above by 2020, we were commissioned by Orbit Group to assess the level of required intervention and impact.

We were specifically asked to assess:

  • What measures need to be applied to all the properties to ensure they all achieve at least an EPC band C?

  • What energy savings (kWh/yr) and running costs (£/yr) would result once all the stock is EPC band C or above?

  • What carbon savings (CO2/yr) will be delivered once all the properties are EPC band C or above?

  • How will the projected 2020 stock and EPC banding profile compare against the current 2014 stock profile?

Our role
We developed an innovative process model to identify a robust 2014 stock performance baseline and then model the projected 2020 performance.

This platform enabled us to work jointly with Orbit Group to evaluate the robustness of its existing stock data, to identify and review the most sensible cost-benefit improvements and identify the attainable energy (kWh/yr), running costs (£/yr), and carbon dioxide (CO2/yr) savings, as well the required level of investment and potential and longer term gains from subsidies - Feed in Tariff, Renewable Heat Incentive and Energy Company Obligation.

Outcomes and benefits

  • A large multiplier effect whereby one modelling study informs investment decisions that will see the roll-out of improvement measures to nearly 30,000 properties, saving approximately £2.9m in resident fuel costs, 423,000MWh and 140,000 tCO2 per year.

  • Senior level buy-in to a multi-million pound 2020 investment programme and the long-term benefits it brings to the organisation and its tenants.

  • Clearly defined cost optimal improvement packages and funding strategy.

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